Bayesian programming is a formalism and a methodology for having a technique to specify probabilistic models and solve problems when less than the necessary information is available. Edwin T. Jaynes proposed that probability could be considered as an alternative and an extension of logic for rational reasoning with incomplete and uncertain information. In his founding book Probability Theory: The Logic of Science he developed this theory and proposed what he called "the robot," which was not a physical device, but an inference engine to automate probabilistic reasoning—a kind of Prolog for probability instead of logic. Bayesian programming is a formal and concrete implementation of this "robot". Bayesian programming may also be seen as an algebraic formalism to specify graphical models such as, for instance, Bayesian networks, dynamic Bayesian networks, Kalman filters or hidden Markov models. Indeed, Bayesian programming is more general than Bayesian networks and has a power of expression equivalent to probabilistic factor graphs. == Formalism == A Bayesian program is a means of specifying a family of probability distributions. The constituent elements of a Bayesian program are presented below: Program { Description { Specification ( π ) { Variables Decomposition Forms Identification (based on δ ) Question {\displaystyle {\text{Program}}{\begin{cases}{\text{Description}}{\begin{cases}{\text{Specification}}(\pi ){\begin{cases}{\text{Variables}}\\{\text{Decomposition}}\\{\text{Forms}}\\\end{cases}}\\{\text{Identification (based on }}\delta )\end{cases}}\\{\text{Question}}\end{cases}}} A program is constructed from a description and a question. A description is constructed using some specification ( π {\displaystyle \pi } ) as given by the programmer and an identification or learning process for the parameters not completely specified by the specification, using a data set ( δ {\displaystyle \delta } ). A specification is constructed from a set of pertinent variables, a decomposition and a set of forms. Forms are either parametric forms or questions to other Bayesian programs. A question specifies which probability distribution has to be computed. === Description === The purpose of a description is to specify an effective method of computing a joint probability distribution on a set of variables { X 1 , X 2 , ⋯ , X N } {\displaystyle \left\{X_{1},X_{2},\cdots ,X_{N}\right\}} given a set of experimental data δ {\displaystyle \delta } and some specification π {\displaystyle \pi } . This joint distribution is denoted as: P ( X 1 ∧ X 2 ∧ ⋯ ∧ X N ∣ δ ∧ π ) {\displaystyle P\left(X_{1}\wedge X_{2}\wedge \cdots \wedge X_{N}\mid \delta \wedge \pi \right)} . To specify preliminary knowledge π {\displaystyle \pi } , the programmer must undertake the following: Define the set of relevant variables { X 1 , X 2 , ⋯ , X N } {\displaystyle \left\{X_{1},X_{2},\cdots ,X_{N}\right\}} on which the joint distribution is defined. Decompose the joint distribution (break it into relevant independent or conditional probabilities). Define the forms of each of the distributions (e.g., for each variable, one of the list of probability distributions). ==== Decomposition ==== Given a partition of { X 1 , X 2 , … , X N } {\displaystyle \left\{X_{1},X_{2},\ldots ,X_{N}\right\}} containing K {\displaystyle K} subsets, K {\displaystyle K} variables are defined L 1 , ⋯ , L K {\displaystyle L_{1},\cdots ,L_{K}} , each corresponding to one of these subsets. Each variable L k {\displaystyle L_{k}} is obtained as the conjunction of the variables { X k 1 , X k 2 , ⋯ } {\displaystyle \left\{X_{k_{1}},X_{k_{2}},\cdots \right\}} belonging to the k t h {\displaystyle k^{th}} subset. Recursive application of Bayes' theorem leads to: P ( X 1 ∧ X 2 ∧ ⋯ ∧ X N ∣ δ ∧ π ) = P ( L 1 ∧ ⋯ ∧ L K ∣ δ ∧ π ) = P ( L 1 ∣ δ ∧ π ) × P ( L 2 ∣ L 1 ∧ δ ∧ π ) × ⋯ × P ( L K ∣ L K − 1 ∧ ⋯ ∧ L 1 ∧ δ ∧ π ) {\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}&P\left(X_{1}\wedge X_{2}\wedge \cdots \wedge X_{N}\mid \delta \wedge \pi \right)\\={}&P\left(L_{1}\wedge \cdots \wedge L_{K}\mid \delta \wedge \pi \right)\\={}&P\left(L_{1}\mid \delta \wedge \pi \right)\times P\left(L_{2}\mid L_{1}\wedge \delta \wedge \pi \right)\times \cdots \times P\left(L_{K}\mid L_{K-1}\wedge \cdots \wedge L_{1}\wedge \delta \wedge \pi \right)\end{aligned}}} Conditional independence hypotheses then allow further simplifications. A conditional independence hypothesis for variable L k {\displaystyle L_{k}} is defined by choosing some variable X n {\displaystyle X_{n}} among the variables appearing in the conjunction L k − 1 ∧ ⋯ ∧ L 2 ∧ L 1 {\displaystyle L_{k-1}\wedge \cdots \wedge L_{2}\wedge L_{1}} , labelling R k {\displaystyle R_{k}} as the conjunction of these chosen variables and setting: P ( L k ∣ L k − 1 ∧ ⋯ ∧ L 1 ∧ δ ∧ π ) = P ( L k ∣ R k ∧ δ ∧ π ) {\displaystyle P\left(L_{k}\mid L_{k-1}\wedge \cdots \wedge L_{1}\wedge \delta \wedge \pi \right)=P\left(L_{k}\mid R_{k}\wedge \delta \wedge \pi \right)} We then obtain: P ( X 1 ∧ X 2 ∧ ⋯ ∧ X N ∣ δ ∧ π ) = P ( L 1 ∣ δ ∧ π ) × P ( L 2 ∣ R 2 ∧ δ ∧ π ) × ⋯ × P ( L K ∣ R K ∧ δ ∧ π ) {\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}&P\left(X_{1}\wedge X_{2}\wedge \cdots \wedge X_{N}\mid \delta \wedge \pi \right)\\={}&P\left(L_{1}\mid \delta \wedge \pi \right)\times P\left(L_{2}\mid R_{2}\wedge \delta \wedge \pi \right)\times \cdots \times P\left(L_{K}\mid R_{K}\wedge \delta \wedge \pi \right)\end{aligned}}} Such a simplification of the joint distribution as a product of simpler distributions is called a decomposition, derived using the chain rule. This ensures that each variable appears at the most once on the left of a conditioning bar, which is the necessary and sufficient condition to write mathematically valid decompositions. ==== Forms ==== Each distribution P ( L k ∣ R k ∧ δ ∧ π ) {\displaystyle P\left(L_{k}\mid R_{k}\wedge \delta \wedge \pi \right)} appearing in the product is then associated with either a parametric form (i.e., a function f μ ( L k ) {\displaystyle f_{\mu }\left(L_{k}\right)} ) or a question to another Bayesian program P ( L k ∣ R k ∧ δ ∧ π ) = P ( L ∣ R ∧ δ ^ ∧ π ^ ) {\displaystyle P\left(L_{k}\mid R_{k}\wedge \delta \wedge \pi \right)=P\left(L\mid R\wedge {\widehat {\delta }}\wedge {\widehat {\pi }}\right)} . When it is a form f μ ( L k ) {\displaystyle f_{\mu }\left(L_{k}\right)} , in general, μ {\displaystyle \mu } is a vector of parameters that may depend on R k {\displaystyle R_{k}} or δ {\displaystyle \delta } or both. Learning takes place when some of these parameters are computed using the data set δ {\displaystyle \delta } . An important feature of Bayesian programming is this capacity to use questions to other Bayesian programs as components of the definition of a new Bayesian program. P ( L k ∣ R k ∧ δ ∧ π ) {\displaystyle P\left(L_{k}\mid R_{k}\wedge \delta \wedge \pi \right)} is obtained by some inferences done by another Bayesian program defined by the specifications π ^ {\displaystyle {\widehat {\pi }}} and the data δ ^ {\displaystyle {\widehat {\delta }}} . This is similar to calling a subroutine in classical programming and provides an easy way to build hierarchical models. === Question === Given a description (i.e., P ( X 1 ∧ X 2 ∧ ⋯ ∧ X N ∣ δ ∧ π ) {\displaystyle P\left(X_{1}\wedge X_{2}\wedge \cdots \wedge X_{N}\mid \delta \wedge \pi \right)} ), a question is obtained by partitioning { X 1 , X 2 , ⋯ , X N } {\displaystyle \left\{X_{1},X_{2},\cdots ,X_{N}\right\}} into three sets: the searched variables, the known variables and the free variables. The 3 variables S e a r c h e d {\displaystyle Searched} , K n o w n {\displaystyle Known} and F r e e {\displaystyle Free} are defined as the conjunction of the variables belonging to these sets. A question is defined as the set of distributions: P ( S e a r c h e d ∣ Known ∧ δ ∧ π ) {\displaystyle P\left(Searched\mid {\text{Known}}\wedge \delta \wedge \pi \right)} made of many "instantiated questions" as the cardinal of K n o w n {\displaystyle Known} , each instantiated question being the distribution: P ( Searched ∣ Known ∧ δ ∧ π ) {\displaystyle P\left({\text{Searched}}\mid {\text{Known}}\wedge \delta \wedge \pi \right)} === Inference === Given the joint distribution P ( X 1 ∧ X 2 ∧ ⋯ ∧ X N ∣ δ ∧ π ) {\displaystyle P\left(X_{1}\wedge X_{2}\wedge \cdots \wedge X_{N}\mid \delta \wedge \pi \right)} , it is always possible to compute any possible question using the following general inference: P ( Searched ∣ Known ∧ δ ∧ π ) = ∑ Free [ P ( Searched ∧ Free ∣ Known ∧ δ ∧ π ) ] = ∑ Free [ P ( Searched ∧ Free ∧ Known ∣ δ ∧ π ) ] P ( Known ∣ δ ∧ π ) = ∑ Free [ P ( Searched ∧ Free ∧ Known ∣ δ ∧ π ) ] ∑ Free ∧ Searched [ P ( Searched ∧ Free ∧ Known ∣ δ ∧ π ) ] = 1 Z × ∑ Free [ P ( Searched ∧ Free ∧ Known ∣ δ ∧ π ) ] {\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}&P\left({\text{Searched}}\mid {\text{Known}}\wedge \delta \wedge \pi \right)\\={}&\sum _{\text{Free}}\left[P\left({\text{Searched}}\wedge {\text{Free}}\mid {\text{Known}}\wedge \delta \wedge \
Depop
Depop Limited is a social e-commerce company based in London, with additional offices in Milan and New York City. The company allows users to buy and sell items, which are mostly used and vintage pieces of clothing. == History == Depop was founded in 2011 by entrepreneur Simon Beckerman at an Italian technological incubator and business start-up centre, H-Farm. Beckerman came up with the original outline of the application during his time working on PIG, a fashion magazine based in Italy that he co-founded. The idea was to create a platform where products shown in the magazine could be purchased by users online. This idea turned into a concept similar to a flea market but on the internet, where people could sell their items while also being in control of advertising, public relations, and the creative process behind their accounts. While being financially supported by H-Farm, Beckerman worked within a team to create and lay out the Depop application while exposing it to numerous investors. In 2013, Beckerman became a member of the company's board to help improve the application and business while concurrently ceding his role of CEO. Maria Raga, Depop's co-founder and former CEO, took on the role of vice president of operations in 2014, and in 2016, she became chief executive. According to Raga, the main goal while developing Depop was to become the next Airbnb or Spotify, but to make an impact on fashion. Paolo Barberis and Nana Bianca were two of the first investors in the platform in 2012 with a seed investment. Its headquarters were moved to London in 2012. Depop expanded and opened additional offices in Milan and New York City. Beckerman raised €1 million in funding in October 2013 from Red Circle Investment and brought on Faroese Runar Reistrup as new CEO. In 2015, Depop secured another investment of $8 million from Balderton Capital and HV Capital. In March 2016, former CEO, Runar Reistrup, stated that Depop's growth was achieved through word of mouth. During his time as CEO, this growth involved taking Depop as a startup and working to raise funds to eventually amass a significant user base within the United States. In June 2019, Depop raised $62 million in Series C from General Atlantic to fund its expansion. Previous investors HV Capital, Balderton Capital, Creandum, Octopus Ventures, TempoCap and Sebastian Siemiatkowski also participated. During this time, Depop held workshops and conversations as part of their Depop Live NY events, and the company also opened a London store through their partnership with Selfridges. In 2020, Depop's gross merchandise sales and revenue both more than doubled to $650 million and $70 million respectively. This may be attributed to Depop's responsiveness to user trends, its lack of issues regarding inventory management, and the increase in users looking to resell. As of 2024, Depop has over 35 million users, according to their website. Depop is popular for Gen Z and young millennials, it is the 10th most-visited shopping platform for Gen Z consumers in the US, and, in a poll conducted by The Strategist in 2019, Depop was voted by teenagers as their favorite resale website. === Acquisition by Etsy === In June 2021, Depop was acquired by Etsy for $1.6 billion in cash, making it Etsy's most expensive acquisition; however, Depop continues to operate as a standalone brand independent from Etsy. This means that in addition to Depop keeping its existing team, the company retained its London location. At the time of acquisition, Etsy CEO Josh Silverman’s goal was to counteract the influx of buyers starting to go back to physical shops for their purchases. He saw Depop for its potential as a platform supporting a variety of products and creating a greater community of users. According to Silverman, Depop may expand and improve its services for its significant Gen Z user base. For Etsy, this acquisition maintains the company's foothold in the clothing industry and allows the company to expand its customer base to a younger demographic; at the same time, Depop is now able to make use of Etsy's company operations. When Maria Raga relinquished her position as Depop's CEO in 2022, Etsy assigned the role to Kruti Patel Goyal, who was Etsy's former chief product officer and a leader there for eleven years. When Goyal was appointed president and chief growth officer for Etsy in May, Peter Semple, former chief marketing officer, was assigned CEO of Depop officially on August 1st. === Acquisition by eBay === In February 2026, Etsy announced a proposed sale of Depop to eBay for $1.2 billion that was estimated to close within the year. == Business model == === Selling === Depop operates as a marketplace and social platform, where users can follow friends and other influencers to view their buying and selling activities. Through the platform, users are able to sell branded and designer items, as well as vintage pieces. Depop users are also encouraged by the platform to use other social networking services such as Instagram to promote their shop profiles. Celebrities have resold their own items on Depop, with some donating proceeds to charitable causes. Depop's user interface is modeled after that of Instagram. According to Depop, users who list and sell items provide their own photos with item descriptions. Users also note their designer items' authenticity and if they include any labels, tags, and receipts. These listings will appear in users' feeds. The platform's "Explore" page features items picked out by Depop staff. According to Depop, purchases are made via Apple Pay, Google Pay, credit and debit cards, and Klarna. Depop payments stay in-app, allowing for the company to mediate disputes and process refunds. Depop payments allow sellers to directly receive their payments in their bank account. To get paid by Depop, a seller has to add a bank account and verify their identification by uploading an ID. On July 18, 2024, Depop CEO Kruti Patel Goyal announced the removal of selling fees for US sellers, while maintaining a payment processing fee. This policy adjustment aimed to enhance seller revenue and support the growth of the second-hand market. === Buying === A Depop transaction includes the agreed sale price of the item, shipping fees, VAT or other applicable taxes and duties, and the marketplace fee for buyers in the U.S. or U.K. For international deliveries, packages may be subject to import taxes, customs duties, or fees, payable upon arrival or at checkout if Depop collects the tax on behalf of the buyer. For domestic purchases, relevant taxes may be collected by the seller or charged by the platform at checkout, ensuring no additional taxes are due upon delivery. For users in Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, Depop allows users to receive a full refund if their item does not arrive, arrives damaged, or is considerably different from the original when the issue is reported within 30 days. === Competitors === As of June 2021, Depop's competitors include Vinted, a platform founded by Milda Mitkute and Justas Janauskas in 2008 and valued at €3.5 billion, as well as the U.S. resale site Poshmark, valued at $3.5 billion. Additional competitors include Grailed, a peer-to-peer e-commerce site founded in 2014 that is recognized for its high-end second-hand menswear and streetwear, and Vestiaire Collection, a European resale app established in 2009 which specializes in authenticated pre-owned luxury items. The popularity of Depop has negatively impacted traditional second-hand stores, which can struggle to compete due to high labor costs and quality demands. There is an oversupply of clothes with the rise of fast fashion; this has taken a toll on the revenue aspect of the second-hand clothing industry. == Criticism == In November 2019, Business of Fashion reported that users within the Depop app were receiving sexually suggestive messages. In February 2020, Jessica Hamilton, a Depop buyer, reported that she found many scammers on the platform. She noticed this issue after she attempted to purchase a Nintendo Switch from a seller who would suspiciously only accept payment through a direct bank transfer without buyer protection. Hamilton blamed the company for its lack of action and relaxed security measures compared to other e-commerce sites, which made the platform especially susceptible to hackers. Without a clear strategy for managing scams, Depop lost some users' trust because of its negligence. In October 2020, some Depop buyers were tricked into paying sellers directly to bypass Depop's buyer protections, and the Depop sellers then sold those users' information on the dark web. In response, Depop claimed that it would improve security through mandatory password updates and multi-factor authentication. Users have criticized Depop for belatedly taking action against this issue.
Stochastic grammar
A stochastic grammar (statistical grammar) is a grammar framework with a probabilistic notion of grammaticality: Stochastic context-free grammar Statistical parsing Data-oriented parsing Hidden Markov model (or stochastic regular grammar) Estimation theory The grammar is realized as a language model. Allowed sentences are stored in a database together with the frequency how common a sentence is. Statistical natural language processing uses stochastic, probabilistic and statistical methods, especially to resolve difficulties that arise because longer sentences are highly ambiguous when processed with realistic grammars, yielding thousands or millions of possible analyses. Methods for disambiguation often involve the use of corpora and Markov models. "A probabilistic model consists of a non-probabilistic model plus some numerical quantities; it is not true that probabilistic models are inherently simpler or less structural than non-probabilistic models." == Examples == A probabilistic method for rhyme detection is implemented by Hirjee & Brown in their study in 2013 to find internal and imperfect rhyme pairs in rap lyrics. The concept is adapted from a sequence alignment technique using BLOSUM (BLOcks SUbstitution Matrix). They were able to detect rhymes undetectable by non-probabilistic models.
Linguistic Data Consortium
The Linguistic Data Consortium is an open consortium of universities, companies and government research laboratories. It creates, collects and distributes speech and text databases, lexicons, and other resources for linguistics research and development purposes. The University of Pennsylvania is the LDC's host institution. The LDC was founded in 1992 with a grant from the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), and is partly supported by grant IRI-9528587 from the Information and Intelligent Systems division of the National Science Foundation. The director of LDC is Mark Liberman. It subsumed the previous ACL Data Collection Initiative. Part of the motivation was to support the benchmark-oriented methodology of DARPA's Human Language Technology program. Previously, John R. Pierce directed the committee that produced the ALPAC report (1966), which caused a severe decrease in funding for linguistic AI for about 10 years. Later, Charles Wayne restarted funding in speech and language in the mid-1980s. In order to avoid the criticisms from the ALPAC report, they needed a way to demonstrate objective progress, which led to the benchmark-oriented methodology. DARPA would propose specific quantifiable and testable score targets on benchmarks, and teams being funded would attempt to reach the score targets. It was noted that by 1993, the data needed for training and benchmarking the models was big enough that "Not even the largest companies can easily afford enough of [the needed] data... Researchers at smaller companies and in universities risk being frozen out of the process almost entirely." The LDC provided a central location for creating and dispensing such data. There is a membership fee that has been increased once since its founding.
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Collateral freedom
Collateral freedom is an anti-censorship strategy that attempts to make it economically prohibitive for censors to block content on the Internet. This is achieved by hosting content on cloud services that are considered by censors to be "too important to block", and then using encryption to prevent censors from identifying requests for censored information that is hosted among other content, forcing censors to either allow access to the censored information or take down entire services.
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